Beyond Prediction: A New Paradigm for the Future of Coaching Research

Beyond Prediction: A New Paradigm for the Future of Coaching Research

Discover how the ICF Thought Leadership Institute is reshaping research governance to be more dynamic, inclusive, and future-ready. By integrating foresight, systems thinking, and diverse knowledge traditions, Alicia Hullinger, Ph. D., Executive Director/VP, shares how the Thought Leadership Institute is evolving beyond conventional methodologies to shape the future of coaching and beyond.

The Future Mindset

This reflection explores how our governance framework challenges conventional scientific paradigms and opens new possibilities for the future of coaching research. The future of research is not just about methodology—it is about mindset. At the ICF Thought Leadership Institute, we do not just study futures; we shape them. This requires a research governance framework that is philosophically sound, methodologically rigorous, and strategically aligned with our commitment to futures thinking. Unlike traditional research, which often relies on predictive models, the Thought Leadership Institute embraces a transdisciplinary and interpretive approach rooted in critical realism and foresight methodologies.1,2

Why This Matters: The Science of Possibilities

Many coaching research models focus on measuring what is already known, seeking objective truths through quantifiable measures. While valuable, these approaches are less suited for exploring complex and uncertain futures.3 The Thought Leadership Institute takes a different path—one that integrates interpretivism and critical realism. Interpretivism allows us to construct diverse futures narratives,4,5 while critical realism recognizes multiple futures emerge from present actions.6,7 Instead of narrowing our focus to a single ‘correct’ vision, this approach equips us to navigate multiple possibilities. If coaching is to remain relevant in a rapidly changing world, we must cultivate futures fluency.

Expanding the Research Toolkit: Methodological Diversity

Our governance framework prioritizes foresight methodologies, that explore alternative futures.8 Traditional coaching research often examines cause-and-effect relationships, offering insights into past and present behavior. However, preparing for the future requires a different lens—one that identifies patterns, weak signals, and emerging trends. By incorporating methods, like scenario planning and horizon scanning, we move beyond static models and embrace a dynamic understanding of change.9

Key Methods in the ICF Thought Leadership Institute’s Framework:

  • Horizon Scanning: Identifying emerging trends before they become mainstream.10
  • Scenario Planning Light: Developing multiple plausible futures, integrating systemic and cultural shifts.11
  • Trend Mapping: Visualizing patterns of change to anticipate disruptions.12

Beyond Data: The Role of Reflexivity and Systems Thinking

Numbers tell a story, but they do not tell the full human story. We embed reflexive practice into futures thinking to ensure we critically examine our assumptions and biases along the way13,14 We also integrate systems thinking,15 because the future does not unfold in neat, linear progressions—it emerges from complex interconnections. By recognizing patterns and leverage points, coaching professionals can anticipate shifts and prepare for what lies ahead.

Ethics and Equity: A Holistic Approach

The Thought Leadership Institute is committed to ethical foresight, ensuring that our research reflects diverse global perspectives. We integrate knowledge systems beyond Western paradigms, including Indigenous epistemologies, decolonial methodologies, and Eastern philosophies.16 Our governance framework embeds cultural sensitivity and inclusivity, recognizing that the future of coaching must be co-created with voices historically marginalized in dominant research traditions.17

Why This Matters for Coaching’s Future

We invite the coaching community into a new paradigm—one that embraces complexity, anticipates change, and fosters a futures-fluent profession. Coaches can engage by integrating foresight practices into their work, applying scenario thinking to client development, and contributing to a global dialogue on the evolving role of coaching in a rapidly shifting world. This approach does not predict the future; rather it prepares for multiple possibilities, empowering coaches and leaders with the tools to navigate an increasingly uncertain world.18

A Call to Engage

As we prepare to release our Annual Futures Report, the Thought Leadership Institute aims to educate and inspire by modeling research practices that align with a rapidly evolving landscape. We encourage our readers to critically engage with this framework, challenge its assumptions, and contribute to an ongoing dialogue about the future of research and practice in coaching.

So, here is the invitation: instead of just asking, “What does the data say?” we are asking, “What future do we want to create?” Because at the end of the day, the future is not just about knowing—it is about becoming.

Discover More Futures Thinking Resources for Coaching:

Stay inspired!
Alicia Hullinger, Ph.D
25 April 2025

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References:

  1. Sayer, A. (2000). Realism and social science. SAGE Publications. ↩︎
  2. Miller, R. (2018). Transforming the future: Anticipation in the 21st century. Taylor & Francis. ↩︎
  3. Inayatullah, S. (1998). Causal layered analysis: Poststructuralism as method. Futures, 30(8), 815-829. ↩︎
  4. Geertz, C. (1973). The interpretation of cultures. Basic Books. ↩︎
  5. Guba, E. G., & Lincoln, Y. S. (1994). Competing paradigms in qualitative research. Handbook of qualitative research, 2(163-194), 105. ↩︎
  6. Archer, M. (1995). Realist social theory: The morphogenetic approach. Cambridge University Press. ↩︎
  7. Bhaskar, R. (1975). A realist theory of science. Routledge. ↩︎
  8. Voros, J. (2003). A generic foresight process framework. Foresight, 5(3), 10-21. ↩︎
  9. Poli, R. (2017). Introduction to anticipation studies (Vol. 1). Springer. ↩︎
  10. Schultz, W. (2006). The cultural contradictions of managing change: Using horizon scanning in an evidence-based policy context. Foresight, 8(4), 3-12. ↩︎
  11. Van der Heijden, K. (2005). Scenarios: The art of strategic conversation. John Wiley & Sons. ↩︎
  12. Hines, A., Bishop, P. J., & Slaughter, R. A. (2015). Thinking about the future: Guidelines for strategic foresight. Houston, TX: Hinesight. ↩︎
  13. Bourdieu, P., & Wacquant, L. J. D. (1992). An invitation to reflexive sociology. University of Chicago Press. ↩︎
  14. Alvesson, M., & Sköldberg, K. (2009). Reflexive methodology: New vistas for qualitative research. SAGE Publications. ↩︎
  15. Meadows, D. H. (2008). Thinking in systems: A primer. Chelsea Green Publishing. ↩︎
  16. Tuhiwai Smith, L. (2012). Decolonizing methodologies: Research and indigenous peoples (Second ed.). Zed Books. ↩︎
  17. Escobar, A. (2018). Designs for the pluriverse: Radical interdependence, autonomy, and the making of worlds. Duke University Press. ↩︎
  18. Sharpe, B., & Hodgson, A. (2020). Three horizons: The patterning of hope. Triarchy Press.  ↩︎

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